INSIGHTS

Financial Industry Insights from Advisors Asset Management

Email
×
Email
×

May Day. Maybe, Maybe Not – Brexit Meaningful Commons Vote


Tuesday, January 15 is a red-letter day for politics in the United Kingdom. Maybe a day for the reds if you are a Labour Party supporter, maybe you will have the blues if you are a Tory (Conservative Party supporter). Regardless, the UK Parliament will finally vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan tomorrow. Odds overwhelmingly favor defeat, so let’s start there.


A big defeat – 200 Parliament votes or more – will likely trigger a no confidence vote and potentially a second referendum, or a general election. A win or very small defeat (by far the outside contender) has the potential to cement May’s leadership and drive the UK forward to an orderly exit on March 29, 2019. Somewhere in the middle (run-of-the mill defeat) is the expectation and that leaves all options still on the table and none the wiser as to the expected outcome of the Article 50 trigger date in a little over two months.


One crucial development, as part of the undercard, is a vote to prohibit a no-deal Brexit should May’s plan be defeated. That would have a fundamental impact on the remaining two months of Brexit posturing and push Britain toward some form of negotiated settlement…maybe not May’s way or the highway, but possibly the Norway.


 


CRN: 2019-0107-7139R

This commentary is for informational purposes only. All investments are subject to risk and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please see the Disclosures webpage for additional risk information at commentary-disclosures. For additional commentary or financial resources, please visit www.aamlive.com.

topics

×

awarded Top 100 Wealth Management Blog

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Author Image

Ask the Author

AAM wants to hear from you. Complete the form below to email the author with any questions or comments you may have. We understand that every firm handles interactive communications differently and will not post any feedback we receive without your consent.