INSIGHTS

On January 14, 2019

May Day. Maybe, Maybe Not – Brexit Meaningful Commons Vote

Tuesday, January 15 is a red-letter day for politics in the United Kingdom. Maybe a day for the reds if you are a Labour Party supporter, maybe you will have the blues if you are a Tory (Conservative Party supporter). Regardless, the UK Parliament will finally vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan tomorrow. Odds overwhelmingly favor defeat, so let’s start there.

A big defeat – 200 Parliament votes or more – will likely trigger a no confidence vote and potentially a second referendum, or a general election. A win or very small defeat (by far the outside contender) has the potential to cement May’s leadership and drive the UK forward to an orderly exit on March 29, 2019. Somewhere in the middle (run-of-the mill defeat) is the expectation and that leaves all options still on the table and none the wiser as to the expected outcome of the Article 50 trigger date in a little over two months.

One crucial development, as part of the undercard, is a vote to prohibit a no-deal Brexit should May’s plan be defeated. That would have a fundamental impact on the remaining two months of Brexit posturing and push Britain toward some form of negotiated settlement…maybe not May’s way or the highway, but possibly the Norway.