Financial Industry Insights from Advisors Asset Management

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March 13, 2017
AAM Viewpoints – The Canary in the Coal Mine – Still Tweeting? By : Scott Colyer As we near the end of the first quarter of 2017 our focus has been on a new U.S. President, rising interest rates and equity markets hitting one new high after another. However, we are very aware that this bull market is getting quite old, by historic standards, and we want to be vigilant for any signs that the market could be turning.
March 02, 2017
Inflating European Expectations By : C.J. Lawrence LLC The Wall Street Journal reported on 2/22/2017 that for the first time in almost four years, none of the Eurozone’s 19 member countries was in deflation during January. Aggregate Inflation across the region is now 1.8%, approaching the ECB’s (European Central Bank) target of 2.0%.
February 21, 2017
AAM Viewpoints – Think Twice Before Abandoning Fixed Income By : JB Golden, CFA The sharp move up in rates after the November U.S. presidential election reminded fixed income investors of the risks associated with bonds in a rising rate environment. With prospects for more inflationary fiscal policy under the Trump administration, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury began a sell-off in early November 2016 moving from 1.75% to 2.60% by mid-December.
February 15, 2017
The “I’s” Have It Series – Inflation By : Matt Lloyd The last in “The ‘I’s’ Have It Series” is perhaps the most influential to investors…inflation. The rising trend that has been in place for some time but suddenly “got lit.” More importantly, it was ignored for some time even though the signals were flashing an increasing challenge to the Federal Reserve and the markets in general.
February 08, 2017
The “I’s” Have It Series – Income Taxes By : Matt Lloyd One large expectation with the new administration is the cut in individual and corporate income taxes. Now that we are roughly three weeks into the new administration, there are already those who are clamoring for the details of the policy while the new administration is extending the period with which they are saying a new policy may come into action.
February 02, 2017
The "I’s" Have It Series – International By : Matt Lloyd The potential and promise of global economic increases has been in holding pattern for the last few years. The MSCI World, excluding the United States, has had a total return of -6.09% over the last few years with the 2016 return looking to be slightly positive. The way things stacked up toward the end of last year we are seeing some rare territory for the global equity markets, not including the United States.
January 25, 2017
The “I’s” Have It Series – Interest Rates By : Matt Lloyd The direction predicted for many years appears to be lifting off, though the trajectory and whether escape velocity can be achieved are two important questions. Rates need to be reviewed on a Federal Reserve and broad-based central bank perspective as well as the market rates from debt to credit issued to consumers and businesses.
January 19, 2017
The “I’s” Have It Series – Indicators By : Matt Lloyd In our 2017 Investment Outlook, “The I’s Have It,” we denoted several key areas to focus on. While we made the case for each “I” there was more detail into each section that we felt deserved a bit more explanation.
January 09, 2017
2017 Investment Outlook By : Matt Lloyd The last year had a bit of everything for everyone. It was a microcosm of what the markets, economies and politics have seen over the last 10 years packed into 12 months.
November 09, 2016
Is Today’s Market Reaction to the Election Results an Opportunity for Tomorrow? By : Matt Lloyd With the historic election results and overwhelming level of surprise, it’s no wonder that the markets have followed the headlines and rhetoric over the last few months with its volatility and shocking reaction.
November 07, 2016
AAM Viewpoints - Triangulation, the Election and the Day After By : Matt Lloyd Attend any dinner party over the last few months and the conversation will tread softly or harshly into the U.S. presidential election, the lack of quality of candidates and the resignation of the new Mayan calendar showing the doomsday on the day after.
October 24, 2016
AAM Viewpoints - Positioning Portfolios for a Rising Rate Environment By : JB Golden, CFA With Fed Funds implied odds of a December hike sitting just shy of 68% to begin the 4th quarter, higher interest rates to end 2016 seem more likely than not. The 3rd quarter started with a Brexit vote that surprised markets and pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to an all-time low of 1.36% on 07/08/2016 with fears that the UK’s decision to leave the European Union would push global markets into recession.
October 17, 2016
AAM Viewpoints - Electing to Stay Bullish… By : Mike Boyle, CFA We discussed last time how we felt corporate earnings were bottoming and we continue to believe this is true and our outlook is 3rd quarter S&P 500 earnings should post slightly positive growth (~1%) though the current analyst consensus is for a contraction (6th quarter in a row) of 1.6%.
October 03, 2016
AAM Viewpoints – European Banks are Stinkin’ up the Joint – Opportunity or Canary in the Coalmine? By : Scott Colyer This past week we have seen a resurgence of market pressure on Deutsche Bank securities. Wisps of Lehman Brothers float in the air as we witness shares of Deutsche Bank carve out new lows.
September 29, 2016
Beware the Tempest in the Teapot By : Matt Lloyd In a world of information that is proliferating at an accelerated pace and long on commentary and short on details, combined with an incessant desire for eyeballs and clicks, we are continually in the middle of a “tempest in the teapot” (an idiom meaning a small event that has been exaggerated out of proportion).
September 19, 2016
AAM Viewpoints – Recession? We Don’t Think So; 30 vs 5 Spreads By : Jim Costas A couple of wise people at AAM pointed out to me that over the last 30 years when the yield curve between the 30-year Treasury and the 5-year Treasury was inverted i.e., the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was lower than the yield on the 5-year Treasury bond, a recession followed.
August 01, 2016
AAM Viewpoints - Skepticism Reigns Over Optimism By : Scott Colyer At the beginning of this year prospects for the financial markets looked pretty bleak. “Recession” was the word on everyone’s mind as equity markets failed to register any significant gains in 2015.
July 05, 2016
AAM Viewpoints – Mid-Year Outlook: Opportunity in Difficult Times By : Matt Lloyd It could be argued that not one six month period has packed such a challenge to economic and market optimism since the end of the Great Recession than the first half of 2016. Almost poetically, the Brexit vote finished off the first half of 2016 with a dose of unexpectedness only a Social Behavioral Psychologist would love.
June 24, 2016
A Perspective on the Brexit Results By : Matt Lloyd Though the vote to leave caught the markets by surprise, especially considering the rally in markets yesterday, the byproduct of leaving is substantial in the markets reaction. The reality will be that this is about to enter a slow progression toward the United Kingdom’s (UK) exit of the European Union (EU) that will require years, not hours.
June 20, 2016
Brexit = Hotel California… “You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave!” By : Todd Asset Management Issue: Britain will hold a stay/leave referendum vote on its European Union (EU) membership on June 23, 2016. The primary issues that have led to this vote relate to Britain’s concerns over the lack of control over regulation, how funds are disbursed within the European Union, and immigration control.

Effective, June 10, 2016, please note that Gene Peroni left Advisors Asset Management (AAM) to become President of Peroni Portfolio Advisors, Inc. Peroni Portfolio Advisors, Inc. ("PPA") is an investment advisor independent of AAM.